ABSTRACT: The current application proposes research that takes advantage of data from one ongoing privatization currently taking place in British Columbia, Canada to assess local effects specifically related to privatization. We will assess impacts of different changes in availability upon alcohol use and related problems across 89 regions over 6 years. The proposed research will examine the relationship between privatization with number of outlets, beverage prices, alcohol sales, and related problems in multiple community contexts. Using these data sources, four specific hypotheses will be tested in the proposed work: (1) Greater local densities of alcohol outlets will be directly related to reductions in private store beverage prices in response to greater geographic competition. (2) Greater outlet densities and reduced prices will be related to greater levels of alcohol sales and use in response to reduced real and convenience costs to consumers. (3) Greater outlet densities and alcohol sales will be independently related to greater levels of alcohol-related problems (the former via increased sales to underage and intoxicated customers). (4) The rate of increase of densities of private retail stores will be related to lower densities of government stores (less local competition), higher pre-existing alcohol sales (larger potential customer base), and local proportions of low-income residents (less local opposition). Spatial Bayesian and space-time disease models will provide a framework for statistical tests of each of these hypotheses taking into account distributional properties of outcome measures (i.e., Gaussian, Poisson and over-dispersed Poisson), failures of unit independence due to spatial and temporal autocorrelation (assuming conditional autoregressive forms), and accounting for differential yet correlated spatial effects using spatial varying parameter models. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: PROJECT NARRATIVE: The proposed work will inform future theoretical models of outlet effects. The mid-term goal is to understand how privatization alters the system of alcohol distribution in the context of a partially private, partially monopoly system. The long-term goal is to provide policy makers with an understanding of how policy decisions related to alcohol outlets will affect their communities and provide guidelines for policy practices.